Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 12 June 2026 at 20:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 7th strongest of the 109 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 12 at 4:11PM EDT until June 12 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 273,299 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- September 3, 2026 · score 37 · 3.7 km
- September 2, 2026 · score 37 · 3.7 km
- June 14, 2026 · score 37 · 11.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.6076, -77.9107 |
| Nearest City | Culpeper (17 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 273.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-06-12T20:11:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b75107ce7500b392e4a47a7a9aad8e97 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-06-12T20:11:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-06-12T20:14:42.713Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Madison, VA; Fairfax, VA; Loudoun, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 12 at 4:11PM EDT until June 12 at 4:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-06-12T16:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b75107ce7500b392e4a47a7a9aad8e97fbb5a65d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3a2474d92b7e58f07725a8119c2437d4bfee25d9.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1ddc8fdc2c01afc6891195859956346070e3cad4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.20a199de5c09d4ecdd91022cc652f1b2573a25d5.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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